Spain faces a week of atmospheric instability following the arrival of a new cut-off low (known in Spanish as dana) that, between Monday 9 and Wednesday 11 March, will bring rain, thunderstorms, snowfall and a significant drop in temperatures across much of the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands. AEMET's weekly forecast issued on 6 March already pointed to a low-pressure system bringing widespread precipitation to the mainland and the Balearics, snow in mountain areas, and temperatures below seasonal averages across western and southern Spain.
This is not an isolated event but rather a fairly common pattern during the transition from winter to spring, when undulations in the polar jet stream favour the detachment of cold upper-level air over the Iberian Peninsula. On this occasion, the upper-level isolated depression will track from northwest to southeast, reactivating unsettled weather right after an already highly variable start to March in many regions.
Broadly speaking, the episode will unfold in two phases. The first will mainly affect the interior and the mountains of central and northern Spain, with showers, thunderstorms and snowfall at relatively low elevations for the time of year. The second will shift the focus to the southeast, the Mediterranean coast and the Alboran Sea area, where the heaviest and most persistent rainfall is expected between Tuesday and Wednesday.
Monday kicks off with widespread rain and mountain snow
Throughout Monday, instability will spread from the northwest towards the Cantabrian coast, the central plateau and much of the peninsular interior. Rainfall may reach Castilla y León, Madrid, Castilla-La Mancha, Extremadura, Andalusia and parts of the southeast, in some cases with thunderstorms and the possibility of localised hail. At the same time, the inflow of cold upper-level air will push the snow line lower, especially across the northern half and central Spain.
The most likely snowfall during this first phase will be concentrated in the Cantabrian Mountains and the Central System range. Monday's forecasts place the snow line between 1,300 and 1,500 metres across much of the northern mountains, but dropping to 800–1,200 metres in the western sector — a threshold that could allow snow to appear occasionally near inhabited areas in some interior locations.
The temperature drop will be one of the clearest signals of this episode. Although this is not a cold wave, it will bring a more wintry feel to several regions right after days of sharp contrasts. AEMET had already warned that the week of 9–15 March would see temperatures below seasonal norms across the west and the southern half of the peninsula, as well as the Canary Islands.
Tuesday: the strongest impact hits the southeast
The most critical day, at least in terms of heavy rainfall, is expected to be Tuesday 10 March. By then, the centre of the cut-off low will shift towards Andalusia and the Alboran Sea, putting the spotlight on eastern Andalusia, the Region of Murcia, the Valencian Community, eastern Castilla-La Mancha, the Strait of Gibraltar area and the Balearic Islands, including the Pitiusas. Locally heavy and thundery showers are possible in these areas, with an uneven distribution but potentially intense bursts in short periods.
It will also be the most challenging day for snow in the southeastern mountain ranges. Several reports published on Monday, based on active weather warnings, place the snowfall risk at orange level around Guadix, Baza and the Genil basin, with accumulations exceeding 5 cm in 24 hours. The snow line may drop to around 900–1,000 metres, meaning snow at unusually low altitudes cannot be ruled out if showers are intense enough.
This behaviour fits the classic pattern of many cut-off low events in southeastern Spain: uneven precipitation, with some areas seeing little rain while others experience intense downpours in a short time. For this reason, even though the episode will not be uniform, it calls for special attention in areas particularly vulnerable to heavy rain, hail or sudden temperature drops.
Improvement from Wednesday, but with caution
By Wednesday 11 March, the forecast points to a gradual retreat of the cut-off low and weakening precipitation. Even so, rain may persist in the Valencian Community, eastern and southeastern Castilla-La Mancha, Melilla and the eastern Andalusian provinces before the episode winds down. A subsequent temperature rise also seems likely, especially from Thursday onwards, although models still leave some uncertainty for the end of the week.
Overall, the most significant aspect of this situation is that it once again highlights the vulnerability of late winter and early spring in Spain — a period particularly prone to cold-air intrusions, organised thunderstorms and late-season mountain snowfall. This is not an extraordinary phenomenon in itself, but it is an episode capable of disrupting travel, complicating journeys at higher altitudes and delivering locally significant rainfall in eastern and southeastern areas.
The most sensible recommendation for the coming days is to follow updates to official warnings, especially in mountain areas and southeastern districts where the cut-off low may concentrate its greatest activity. As is typical with these situations, small changes in the trajectory of the cold-air pool can alter the final distribution of rain and snow.
Frequently asked questions
Which areas of Spain will see the most rain from this week's cut-off low?
Forecasts place the heaviest precipitation between Tuesday and Wednesday across eastern Andalusia, the Region of Murcia, the Valencian Community, eastern Castilla-La Mancha, the Strait of Gibraltar area and the Balearic Islands, especially the Pitiusas.
Where will the heaviest snowfall occur?
In the first phase, snow will be concentrated in the Cantabrian Mountains and the Central System range. The focus will then shift to the southeastern mountain ranges, with notable warnings around Guadix, Baza and the Genil basin.
How low could the snow line drop during this episode?
On Monday, the snow line could fall to 800–1,200 metres in the western part of the northern half. On Tuesday, in the southeast, it could sit around 900–1,000 metres, with the possibility of sudden drops if showers are intense.
When will the weather start to improve in Spain?
The current forecast points to a gradual improvement from Wednesday, with temperatures rising from Thursday, although the final outcome will depend on how quickly the cut-off low moves away and whether new fronts approach towards the weekend.