Semana Santa (Holy Week) is one of the most anticipated events in the Spanish calendar. Open-air processions, coastal getaways and mountain trips all hinge on the weather. But what does climatology say about these dates? Although Easter shifts each year (from mid-March to late April), recurring patterns are worth knowing before you pack your bags.

A period of atmospheric transition

Holy Week coincides with the winter-to-spring transition. This means weather is highly variable: you can enjoy 25 °C in southern Spain one day and face an Atlantic front with widespread rain the next. The position of the polar jet stream largely determines whether the Iberian Peninsula sits under high pressure (fair weather) or in the path of passing storms.

According to AEMET historical records, roughly 40-50 % of Holy Weeks see at least one day of appreciable rain in the southern half, rising to 60 % along the Cantabrian coast.

Expected temperatures by region

  • Andalusia and Murcia: highs between 20 and 28 °C. The warmest areas, ideal for evening processions without the cold. Lows hover around 10-14 °C.
  • Valencia and the Balearic Islands: highs of 18 to 24 °C, with sea breezes cooling the afternoons. Rain is less likely than inland.
  • Central plateau (Madrid, Castillas): highs of 15 to 22 °C, but with notable thermal range — early morning processions can drop to 4-8 °C.
  • Northern coast (Galicia, Asturias, Cantabria, Basque Country): highs of 14 to 19 °C and the highest rain probability. Showers are frequent, though sunny spells also occur.
  • Canary Islands: stable temperatures between 20 and 25 °C, with little chance of rain except on the summits.

Does it always rain during Holy Week?

There is a popular belief that "it always rains during Semana Santa." Data shows this is largely confirmation bias: we remember cancelled processions and forget the sunny years. Statistically, the probability of rain is similar to any other week in the same season. However, the fact that Easter can fall in March (wetter) or April (somewhat drier) creates significant year-to-year variability.

The areas with the lowest rain risk are the southeast (Almería, Murcia) and the Canary Islands. The highest risk areas are the Cantabrian coast and the mountain ranges.

Tips for planning your outings

  • Check the 7-day forecast on Meteo.es before choosing your destination. Models are reliable 5-7 days out.
  • Always bring warm clothing for evening processions, even in the south: temperature drops rapidly after sunset.
  • Compact umbrella is a must on the Cantabrian coast and the northern plateau.
  • Sunscreen if heading south or to the Canaries: UV radiation is already high at this time of year.
  • Check weather warnings on the day of each procession: brotherhoods consult hour-by-hour forecasts before deciding whether to proceed.

The rain radar — your best ally

If you are waiting for a procession and the sky clouds over, check the real-time precipitation radar on Meteo.es. It will show you whether the clouds carry rain and how long before they reach your town. Our hourly forecast resolution will help you decide whether to wait it out or find an alternative plan.

Whatever the weather, Holy Week in Spain always has something special to offer. With the right meteorological information, you can make the most of these days.